Beforehand it foresaw 755,000 models; now CIMB Securities has revised its 2025 complete trade quantity (TIV) forecast barely upwards to 760,000 models, Bernama studies. For the report, RHB Funding Financial institution predicts 730,000, Maybank Funding Financial institution Analysis 750,000, the Malaysian Automotive Affiliation 780,000 and Kenanga Funding Financial institution 805,000.
Seemingly no point out was made from the postponement of OMV/402, which might make locally-assembled (CKD) vehicles dearer by 10-30%, to January 2026, however CIMB Securities stated in right this moment’s analysis observe that its newest forecast is based on potential headwinds just like the anticipated mid-year begin of focused RON 95 petrol subsidies.
“Nonetheless, we anticipate resilient demand throughout the sub-RM100,000 section, which stays dominated by nationwide manufacturers and choose entry-level fashions from Japanese marques,” it stated, including that stated section made up no less than 75% of TIV in 2024, with nationwide manufacturers taking on 80% of the section, and Japanese and Chinese language makes taking the remainder, primarily based on its estimations.
“We count on this demand to stay strong in 2025, supported by first-time automobile consumers, the December 2024 civil servants’ wage hike, and an accommodative rate of interest surroundings maintained by Financial institution Negara Malaysia,” it stated, including that it additionally forecasts a comparatively secure in a single day coverage price (OPR) in 2025, which might be part of forces with the federal government’s plans to retain gas subsidies for 85% of RON 95 customers to keep up affordability within the mass-market section.
“Consequently, we count on nationwide manufacturers to keep up their dominance, capturing a projected 64.5% market share, in contrast with 35.5% for non-national manufacturers in 2025,” it stated, additionally mentioning a subdued progress outlook amidst heightening competitors from Chinese language manufacturers.
Key catalysts are the strengthening of the ringgit towards the US greenback and Japanese yen, a discount in rates of interest and beneficial authorities insurance policies geared toward reviving home demand, CIMB Securities stated, including that Sime Darby stays a prime sector choose owing to its earnings-accretive acquisition of UMW Holdings, rising publicity to Australia’s mining sector, and potential monetisation of non-core and land financial institution property.
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