Islamabad, Pakistan – The setting was Mar-a-Lago, the private residence of United States President Donald Trump, and the query involved the destiny of Russia’s battle on Ukraine, which has been raging since February 2022.
“Now we have stopped eight wars,” Trump mentioned throughout a information convention on December 22, the place he additionally introduced a brand new class of closely armed warships that can be named after him.
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“We stopped a possible nuclear battle between Pakistan and India,” the president added, making the argument for why he believed he might finish the battle in Ukraine, although he has to this point failed to take action, regardless of as soon as claiming he might cease the battle inside 24 hours.
“The pinnacle of Pakistan and a extremely revered common – he’s a area marshal – and likewise the prime minister of Pakistan mentioned that President Trump saved 10 million lives, perhaps extra,” the US president added.
This marked at the least the tenth occasion since June this yr that Trump, who returned to the White Home in January for a second time period, publicly praised Pakistan’s military chief, Area Marshal Asim Munir.
Probably the most outstanding episode got here in October, when Trump addressed the Sharm el-Sheikh Peace Summit in Egypt on the conclusion of the ceasefire settlement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Thanking world leaders for his or her efforts within the ceasefire, Trump acknowledged Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, standing behind him, earlier than referring to Munir, describing him as “my favorite area marshal”.
On a number of different events earlier within the yr, Trump described Munir as “an awesome fighter”, “an important man”, and an “distinctive human being”. After their first assembly in June, the US president mentioned he was “honoured” to satisfy the Pakistani navy chief.
That public heat in direction of Pakistan’s military chief underscores how Munir emerged as a central driver of the nation’s rising geopolitical profile in 2025, analysts say, with some crediting him for reviving the nation’s diplomatic standing, and resurrecting Pakistan’s beforehand strained ties with Washington.
The US-Pakistan relationship, which was within the doldrums only a few years in the past, has since expanded past safety cooperation to incorporate financial engagement, comparable to discussions on crypto mining and essential minerals.
Many consultants hint this shift to the four-day armed battle between Pakistan and India in Could 2025, arguing that it marked a decisive turning level.
India and Pakistan each claimed “victory” within the air battle. However regardless of who gained, Islamabad managed to make use of the backdrop of the battle to additional its pursuits, analysts say. The view can also be echoed by many in Pakistan’s political and diplomatic circles.
The battle with India “was the decisive issue that raised [the] military chief’s profile internationally,” Khurram Dastgir Khan, Pakistan’s former international affairs and defence minister, advised Al Jazeera.
“The victory precipitated many traits that had been gathering pressure for a while, a few of these as a result of particular character of the US president, Trump.”
Brief battle, lasting penalties
India and Pakistan, the 2 nuclear-armed neighbours who’ve fought a number of wars and have remained locked in rivalry for many years, plunged the area into disaster earlier this yr after an April assault in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians.
India blamed Pakistan, which denied the allegation and referred to as for a “credible, unbiased, clear” investigation.
On Could 7, India launched strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan responded with air operations, claiming it shot down at the least six Indian fighter jets. India confirmed plane losses days later, however didn’t specify the quantity.
The battle escalated over the following three days as each side exchanged drone assaults and, on Could 10, launched missiles at one another’s navy targets. The preventing ended solely after intense backchannel diplomacy, notably involving the US, produced a ceasefire.
Whereas Pakistan acknowledged Washington’s function and later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, India insisted the ceasefire happened purely by bilateral dialogue. New Delhi has lengthy argued that any dispute between India and Pakistan can solely be resolved bilaterally.
However since Could, Trump has repeatedly invoked the battle, insisting on greater than 4 dozen events that he brokered the ceasefire. He has additionally, at numerous factors, echoed Pakistan’s declare of downing Indian plane.
“[New] Delhi’s sullen refusal to credit score Trump with the ceasefire opened an area that military chief Munir and PM Sharif moved swiftly to utilise,” Khan, who can also be a member of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz social gathering, mentioned.
Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani international secretary, agreed, calling the Could battle a “particular turning level”.
Bashir mentioned that Trump is an “uncommon president”, and his affinity for Munir, mixed with the conflict with India, helped reset ties between Islamabad and Washington.
“Asim Munir is pivotal to the revival of [Pakistan’s] diplomatic fortunes,” Bashir advised Al Jazeera.
First indicators of shift
Pakistan was as soon as a key US ally and was designated a significant non-NATO ally following the September 11, 2001, assaults within the US.
The connection frayed in subsequent years, as US officers accused Islamabad of duplicity within the US’s so-called “battle on terror”. Throughout his first time period, Trump accused Pakistan of giving the US “nothing however lies and deceit” and of harbouring armed teams. His successor, Joe Biden, later described Pakistan as “one of the vital harmful nations”.
On the similar time, US coverage pivoted sharply in direction of India, seen in Washington as a possible counterweight to China, Pakistan’s closest strategic accomplice.
But, simply two months into his second time period, Trump struck a special tone. Addressing a joint session of Congress in March, he thanked Pakistan for arresting one of many alleged perpetrators of the Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021. The assault killed 13 US service members and dozens of Afghan civilians through the US’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“I wish to thank particularly the federal government of Pakistan for serving to arrest this monster,” Trump mentioned.
Qamar Cheema, govt director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, mentioned this had been a sign of the US’s shifting strategy in direction of Pakistan.
“[The] US at all times wanted an ally who might assist them obtain counterterrorism targets, and whereas they’d been supporting India considerably for the previous a few years, after the Abbey Gate bomber arrest, [the] US realised Pakistan has the potential to assist ship their targets,” Cheema advised Al Jazeera.
“I feel the sphere marshal has emerged as a soldier-diplomat,” he added, noting that Munir had “used his expertise of military-diplomacy” to be Pakistan’s “advocate”.
The military chief’s rising diplomatic clout additionally mirrors his more and more elevated home profile.
Area marshal’s choreography
Since independence from Britain in 1947, Pakistan’s navy, notably the military, has been essentially the most highly effective establishment within the nation.
4 coups and a long time of direct authorities entrenched its dominance. Even beneath civilian governments, the military chief has usually been thought to be essentially the most influential determine in nationwide life.
Following the Could battle with India, Munir was elevated to area marshal, solely the second officer in Pakistan’s historical past to carry the rank. Later within the yr, a constitutional change created the publish of Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), to be held concurrently by the Chief of Military Workers (COAS).
The transfer positioned the Pakistan Air Pressure and Pakistan Navy beneath Munir’s authority.
Although these strikes sparked criticism from sections of the opposition and several other unbiased analysts, Pakistan’s international relations appeared to realize momentum by the yr.
In South Asia, Islamabad revived ties with Bangladesh following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, extensively seen as near New Delhi. A number of high-level visits adopted, together with Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s journey to Dhaka in August, essentially the most senior Pakistani go to in additional than 13 years.
Pakistani civilian and navy leaders, together with Munir and Sharif, additionally engaged counterparts from Central Asia, together with Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Maybe most notably, Pakistan sought to stability relations throughout the Center East, sustaining ties with Gulf monarchies whereas additionally partaking Iran.
After assembly Munir in June, Trump remarked that Pakistanis “know Iran very effectively, higher than most”.
Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts College, mentioned that these developments successfully “re-telegraphed Pakistan’s strategic forex as a regional actor” with affect past its borders.
He recognized two unrelated however converging developments: Washington’s renewed concentrate on the Center East, notably Gaza and Iran, and the efficiency of Pakistan’s typical air defences through the Could battle with India, which Humayun described as a hit.
“Munir moved rapidly to capitalise on each, leveraging occasions, together with the battle with India, the preventing between Israel and Iran in June, and efforts to convey the Gaza battle to a detailed, to interact the best ranges of the Trump administration, whereas concurrently consolidating political management at residence,” Humayun advised Al Jazeera.
Pakistan has additionally expressed a willingness to take part within the US-led worldwide stabilisation pressure, a controversial coalition proposed by Trump to supervise the safety of Gaza.
Munir has held high-profile conferences with navy leaders from Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Libya. Probably the most consequential engagement got here in September, when Munir and Sharif met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and signed a mutual defence settlement.
Cheema mentioned that Munir, who made two extra visits to the US in August and September, had labored “tremendously exhausting” to place Pakistan as a regional participant past South Asia.
“The US sees that Munir and Pakistan can play a bigger function, and they’re already partaking with US allies within the area,” he mentioned.
Features overseas, prices at residence
Some observers argue that Pakistan’s diplomatic standing has not reached such heights in a long time.
Khan claimed that Pakistan is among the many few international locations sustaining constructive relations with all the key stakeholders in world conflicts, together with the US, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
“Worldwide salience has raised the federal government’s home credibility and consolidated the nation’s financial and political stability,” he mentioned.
Others are extra sceptical, and cautious about drawing sweeping conclusions concerning the trajectory of Pakistani diplomacy in a fast-moving world.
“Pakistan wants political stability. What meaning in at present’s world is but to be seen,” Bashir, the previous international secretary, mentioned, pointing to issues that “we hear much less about democracy and extra about centralised management” domestically.
Maria Rashid, a lecturer in worldwide relations on the College of Wolverhampton, mentioned that Pakistan’s home and international politics are deeply intertwined.
“The US-Pakistan navy love affair is, in fact, not new. The connection putters alongside even through the lows. As at all times, this time round, it’s an alignment of pursuits, one which has had disastrous penalties for democracy in Pakistan traditionally,” she advised Al Jazeera.
Earlier intervals of shut US-Pakistan collaboration embrace the Eighties, after they each backed the mujahideen in Afghanistan in opposition to the Soviet Union, and the publish September 11, 2001, interval through the US’s “battle on terror”. On each events, critics argued that US assist strengthened the navy leaders who ruled Pakistan on the time: Normal Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq within the Eighties, and Pervez Musharraf within the 2000s.
In the meantime, for all of Pakistan’s mounting diplomatic visibility, violence at residence has surged in 2025, notably within the western provinces bordering Afghanistan, ensuing within the highest casualty figures in a decade. Opposition events and rights teams accuse the federal government of eroding civil liberties, suppressing the media and fascinating in political violence.
The passage of the twenty seventh constitutional modification earlier this yr proved particularly controversial. Critics mentioned it granted Munir sweeping powers because the CDF, promised him lifetime immunity and weakened judicial oversight.
The Sanober Institute’s Cheema argues that energy in Pakistan has at all times been shared between elected and unelected establishments, and that the modification was vital for navy reform.
“Folks might complain about it and say it’s [an] accumulation of energy,” he mentioned. However he argued that “this was wanted for [the] transformation of the armed forces, and [to] enhance cohesion”.
The continued crackdown on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the social gathering of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, jailed since August 2023, additionally continued to attract criticism all year long, together with from the United Nations.
Rashid, the worldwide relations lecturer, mentioned the Could battle with India got here at a vital second for Munir and the navy, whose recognition had been at a low ebb amid political turmoil and rising violence.
“The preventing in Could resulted in Munir’s resurrection because the strongman who proved his mettle in opposition to India,” she mentioned.
For the navy, Rashid added, international coverage success has helped push uncomfortable home points into the background.
“Khan’s incarceration, the twenty seventh modification, the insurgency in Balochistan, all these information gadgets at the moment are relegated to the background in opposition to the ‘success’ of Pakistan’s diplomatic and financial relevance internationally,” she mentioned.