EXPERT OPINION — I’m intently watching the rising measurement and momentum of protesters throughout Iran’s cities, rural areas, and pious communities who’re bravely and vocally rejecting the Supreme Chief’s damaged insurance policies. They’ve shined a lightweight on Khamenei’s gross mismanagement of the economic system and the extreme multi-year drought; his fixed agitation and hostile relations with neighbors; Iran’s lack of status and affect with coreligionist communities in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria; his failures towards international assaults; and his misguided alliance with Russia towards Ukraine. Even regime loyalists have begun murmuring such complaints.
Regime instability indicators and warnings are blinking. I imagine Iran’s revolutionary facade is crumbling, however into an unsure future.
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As extra protesters demand a greater future, I’m looking forward to proof of leniency from their fathers, brothers, uncles, and schoolmates who work within the IRGC, the police, and even within the Basij. If such cracks seem, new non-revolutionary leaders may emerge as shortly as al-Sharaa rose to energy in Syria.
Protesters, nonetheless, almost certainly lack expertise working cities, provinces, and the federal authorities. New non-revolutionary leaders due to this fact most likely would look to the U.S. for assurance and assist – and instantly.
If the protests produce a brand new Supreme Chief beneath a revolutionary Velāyat-e Faqih theocracy mannequin, nonetheless, the longer term seems to be fairly darkish. Crackdowns would most likely be fairly harsh and swift, the nuclear program would almost certainly march on, and Tehran undoubtedly would preserve funneling cash and arms to trusted proxies that threaten the U.S. and Israel.
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I’ve been engaged on Iranian points since 1979 as an educational, diplomat, intelligence officer, and now as a professor of follow. Nothing, for my part, would stabilize the area between the Black Sea, Japanese Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf quicker than a peaceable, non-nuclear and rich Iran that acknowledges the state of Israel and distances itself from Russia.
Most pendulums ultimately swing, and I’m looking forward to this one to swing in assist of the Iranian individuals lastly having an opportunity to rejoin a neighborhood of free nations that worth peace, prosperity, and democracy. If non-revolutionary leaders have been to emerge, the West may lastly and shortly work in the direction of restoring a genuinely peaceable future that ends Tehran’s nuclear weapons program; breaks its lethal alliance with Russia; terminates its expensive assist to Hizballah, Hamas, and the Houthis; and welcomes Iran into the neighborhood of countries as a accountable, wealth-producing world vitality companion. Might the pendulum swing decisively in these instructions in 2026.
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