After assembly with the president in Washington this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is much less optimistic a couple of deal, telling reporters on Thursday that “…I expressed normal skepticism about any settlement with Iran, however I stated that if an settlement is reached, it should embrace the weather which are vital to Israel: not solely the nuclear program, but in addition the ballistic missiles, and in addition the Iranian proxies.”
In the meantime, Iran’s nationwide safety chief Ali Larijani is warning that Tehran would strike U.S. bases within the area whether it is attacked.
The Cipher Transient spoke with former Nationwide Intelligence Supervisor for Iran at ODNI Norm Roule about what’s more likely to come subsequent. Roule, who can also be a Cipher Transient Knowledgeable, travels often to the area for conferences with senior leaders. We spoke with him on this unique interview concerning the dangers and alternatives going through the U.S. with regard to Iran and what he believes Iran is more likely to do first if the U.S. does launch a navy assault.
Norman T. Roule
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and power marketing consultant who served for 34 years within the Central Intelligence Company, managing quite a few packages referring to Iran and the Center East. He additionally served because the Nationwide Intelligence Supervisor for Iran (NIM-I)n at ODNI, the place he was chargeable for all elements of nationwide intelligence coverage associated to Iran.
THE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Transient: The U.S. is continuous to deploy navy belongings to the Center East. How are you assessing the alternatives given the place talks with Tehran are in the mean time? What do you see as reasonable U.S. targets?
Roule: You’re appropriate to start out with a give attention to targets. It will give us targets to evaluate dangers and alternatives, in addition to the report card towards which the success of any technique have to be judged.
Quite a few these are included within the Trump Administration’s December 2025 Nationwide Safety Technique: keep away from involvement in a pricey regional struggle or nation-building, be certain that regional sea lanes and choke factors stay open, and preserve steady power markets.
Concerning the Islamic Republic, each Administration – certainly your entire worldwide neighborhood – has agreed that Tehran should stop the oppression of its individuals, should not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, its missile packages have to be constrained, and its malign regional adventurism and assist for terrorism should finish. This latter set of ambitions has been a part of not solely this administration’s Iran technique but in addition of the primary Trump administration’s technique. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Could 2018 Twelve-Level Speech on Iran highlighted every of those targets.
Nevertheless, the present method addresses areas the place there are totally different views on the steadiness between nonproliferation and broader regional points, and on whether or not to resolve the nuclear problem first and handle different points later, or to deal with them collectively.
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as soon as famously reminded a bunch that policymaking is completed in a actuality the place we should do not forget that we’re a rustic and not an NGO. Nationwide pursuits, safety, and energy drive overseas coverage.
Humanitarian targets might be vital in our insurance policies, however they received’t be the first driver. Ours is just not the primary era to face the problem of how far we must always go to encourage and militarily assist those that courageously stand towards tyrants.
Woodrow Wilson confronted this dilemma as White Russian armies fought the Bolsheviks in 1918-1920. A number of presidents had been pressed to reply as Germans, Czechs, Hungarians, and different protestors valiantly stood up towards closely armed Soviet occupiers within the Nineteen Forties, 50s, and 60s. It’s simple to say we must always do extra, however these selections are by no means clear. On this case, there have been many requires navy motion, and it’s simple to know the rationale, watching the regime’s cruelty towards the braveness of Iranian protestors. However it’s also unclear precisely what we’re to assault, for a way lengthy, how we’d measure success, whether or not the outcomes would justify the ramifications of coping with Iran’s navy retaliation and lastly, whether or not the second for such motion has handed. Each presidential advisor would attempt to handle these questions.
But when coverage selections concerning Iran contain profound dangers, the occasions of this month present that kicking the can down the highway is not any much less harmful. Inevitably, the can will get heavier with each kick and the highway will get shorter. There may be completely nothing concerning the Iran risk in the present day that hasn’t been predicted for years. The worldwide neighborhood refused to danger the value of arduous actions towards Iran, and elected to make use of repeated makes an attempt at diplomacy, corrosive sanctions (which had been efficient in limiting Iranian capabilities) and till June 2025, more and more empty threats of navy motion to constrain Iran.
By way of alternatives, the Administration has been constant in its give attention to 4 priorities with regard to Iran. The latest has been humanitarian and entails the U.S. risk of navy motion towards the regime if it continues utilizing widespread murderous power towards Iranian protestors. Nobody can deny the horrific and bloody crimes dedicated by this regime throughout the latest unrest. The violence has subsided together with the protests, albeit widespread arrests and detentions proceed. The President has claimed that his threats of navy motion restricted Iran’s use of violence and stopped Iran from hanging massive numbers of protestors. Some actually argue that we must always have used navy motion to assist the protesters, however this raises the query I discussed earlier and associated points about whether or not we had enough belongings within the space to deal with potential “Day After” penalties. This can be a query with no single clear reply. Nevertheless, our use of diplomatic, financial, and navy strain to forestall regime violence towards protesters is acceptable and in step with our nationwide values.
The Cipher Transient: The White Home is now centered on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and regional threats. Discuss to us about why this can be a precedence and whether or not the present second is a chance.
Roule: Let’s begin with Iran’s nuclear program. The June 2025 Twelve-Day Warfare severely degraded – at the least for now – Iran’s nuclear weapons functionality. However that functionality will be rebuilt, and if Iran has any enrichment capability, particularly one not below worldwide supervision, they’ll attempt to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium. But when Iran doesn’t agree diplomatically to not rebuild these capabilities and to offer the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company with the entry it requires, we must always metal ourselves to the requirement that the Israelis or we might want to repeat the June 2025 navy strikes when Iran chooses to rebuild.
Subsequent, now we have the Iranian ballistic missile risk. The unclassified Could 2025 Protection Intelligence Evaluation said that Iran’s space-launch car program may give it the aptitude to construct as many as sixty intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by 2035.
Iran’s repeated use of ballistic missiles towards a number of nations makes it affordable for Israel to be involved concerning the long-term dimension and course of this program as nicely. Iran’s missile program is just not at present a risk to Western Europe. If Iran builds ICBMs, this, in fact, adjustments. The concept that anybody would permit a rustic with Iran’s political, navy, and nuclear historical past to construct dozens of doubtless nuclear-tipped ICBMs inside 9 years shouldn’t be acceptable. It could even be too simple to think about a state of affairs during which Iran and North Korea joined forces to threaten the U.S. Homeland. So, we both compel Iran to vary the course of its ballistic missile program, work with Europe to construct a pricey missile protect, or destroy that program militarily now.
Final, Iran’s Quds Pressure stays operational and has begun to repeat what might be a several-year marketing campaign to reconstitute its regional proxy program. This isn’t the primary time the Quds Pressure has been required to rebuild a regional program amid nice danger to the regime. In actual fact, it’s the third time since 2003.
By any conventional measure, the Islamic Republic represents a failed revolutionary state ruling a disillusioned and indignant inhabitants. In some ways, it resembles the ultimate years of the Soviet Union: an ossified regime whose ideology is dismissed even by its most ardent supporters. The regime retains energy by repression, coercion, corruption, and a multi-layered system of profitable patronage that its most potent supporters would lose in any reformed authorities.
The administration’s rhetoric and actions make an affordable case that the present second ought to be examined to see whether or not, with additional strain – which may embrace navy motion – the regime would sacrifice these malign actions in change for sanctions aid that might permit the Islamic Republic to outlive. This received’t fulfill those that search regime change, however it does parallel Washington’s method to Venezuela.
The Cipher Transient: How would you assess Iran’s losses to this point?
Roule: By any measure, Iran’s losses have been extraordinary, consequential, and unprecedented in fashionable historical past for a rustic of its dimension, regional affect, and international financial influence within the power market. The final two years have been crowded with examples of the collapse of its political, financial, and nationwide safety structure.
By way of management, the regime has endured the dying of President Ebrahim Raisi, who was extremely more likely to be Supreme Chief Khamenei’s selection. His passing was adopted by a historic low turnout in elections that led to the Pezeshkian presidency. Pezeshkian didn’t ship on his financial guarantees. His tenure has included the dismissal or resignation of two vice presidents, two cupboard officers, and different senior officers. He spends a lot of his time apologizing to the Iranian individuals for the federal government’s failures, hoping this tactic will win him well-liked assist. It’s considerably comprehensible in that the financial complaints that ignited Iran’s latest nationwide unrest occurred in a rustic that has endured months of shortages of water, electrical energy, pure gasoline, and refined merchandise, which forces the repeated closure of faculties, authorities workplaces, and companies.
The World Financial institution estimates that one-third of Iranians (25-26 million) are under the poverty line. Annual inflation reached 43 p.c in December 2025. The rial, which fell to 1.43 million to the greenback earlier than the unrest, simply reached 1.63 million to the greenback and seems to haven’t any backside. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s feedback on latest U.S. expanded sanctions in response to Iran’s dealing with of protests underscores Washington’s intent to make use of no matter financial instruments it may well to strain Tehran.
The Cipher Transient: In the event you’re this when it comes to Iran’s personal nationwide safety, how does it look?
Roule: By way of nationwide safety, the image is bleak. Over the previous two years, Israel killed the commanders of Iran’s major proxy companions and destroyed the group’s strategic capability. Russia and China proved to be of no assist in the June Warfare, nor may they cease the reimposition of United Nations Safety Council Sanctions.
The lack of Syria and Venezuela price Iran its closest exterior allies, lowering its regional and international political attain. The June Warfare was a profound defeat for Iran’s air defenses and intelligence companies. Israel and the U.S. simply destroyed key parts of Iran’s vastly costly nuclear program, an effort that has price billions of {dollars} and for which Iran has endured many years of political and financial isolation. The battle price Tehran a lot of its most skilled navy and nuclear personnel, and left Iran with billions of {dollars} in injury to its nuclear and missile infrastructure.
Lastly, Iran’s murderous killing of protestors and web shutdown starkly illustrated that essentially the most profitable facet of the regime’s nationwide safety investments stays its instruments of oppression.
The Cipher Transient: Many have described Tehran in the present day as weak. But the regime retains surviving protests. Its missile packages are thought of a possible risk, and policymakers are fearful about its capability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, impacting power markets. What’s your tackle this?
Roule: The regime is weaker in lots of areas, however it’s extra correct to say that the regime has by no means been extra fragile and is strategically weaker than it has been in many years. All of that is identified to Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council. However they’ll additionally record strengths they imagine will assist them survive. I might quite not record these publicly however suffice it to say that key elites and safety parts stay unified, disciplined, and responsive.
If the federal government’s deep nationwide unpopularity is a reality, it may well’t be ignored, as a considerable portion of the inhabitants stays uncommitted to its overthrow, and a few are dedicated to its survival quite than supporting the opposition. Externally, it might haven’t any dependable state allies, however nor does it face a global coalition. The U.S. is its major adversary. What it achieves towards Washington will form its relations with the world.
Iran might not have the ability to compete with the U.S. militarily, however that has all the time been the case. Its leaders know that they have to have the ability to threaten an uneven response: regional and international financial destruction by missile, drones, and cyber-attacks will instantly start ought to the U.S. assault Iran.
This record ought to depart your readers with the sense that these males imagine the perfect days of the regime are forward. That may indicate stupidity, which isn’t a attribute that will get one by Iran’s nationwide safety shark pool of political and coverage challenges.
They wake each morning, realizing that their home political and financial realities make one other cycle of nationwide anti-regime unrest inevitable. The Supreme Chief might be 87-years previous on April 19. His eventual passing will set off the ultimate transition to the regime’s post-revolutionary era and so they have had years to organize for this second. However his passing, which may happen at any time, may create a brand new disaster. And naturally, if an precise navy battle with the U.S. takes place, the survival of the regime, and the non-public survival of these in Iran’s management may very well be in query.
The Cipher Transient: How are you assessing the influence of the Trump administration’s method proper now?
Roule: The construction of the Trump administration’s technique stays strategically standard. The administration’s major aim is a diplomatic final result that avoids a traditional struggle or an episode that leaves Iran empowered and U.S. credibility broken. Therefore, the probability of a dramatically highly effective navy assault on Iran stays excessive.
The administration has made no secret of its buildup of one of the vital highly effective offensive air, missile, and air protection capabilities in historical past. Israel has additionally threatened navy motion. The President can also be reportedly contemplating dispatching one other plane service activity power to enhance his offensive capabilities additional. The best way this power has been deployed so far exhibits that it’s a part of the strain marketing campaign and that the President has not but approved navy operations. After all, this final level may change at any time.
The administration has deployed a senior diplomatic staff and urged regional companions to press Iran to have interaction with the U.S. to achieve a deal. The administration has loudly introduced new financial strain on Iran and naturally, deployed a large navy power. All of that is meant to strain Iran’s leaders into making concessions.
This brings us to the topic of timelines. This present course of is more likely to final till the president and his advisors imagine they’ve exhausted diplomacy. If the administration continues to imagine it should strategically change Iran’s nuclear, missile, and Qods Pressure, then navy motion turns into a really excessive chance.
Predicting this timeline is unimaginable as it’s formed by Iran’s selections, accomplice enter, U.S. political situations, and even surprising occasions, equivalent to a sudden spike in unrest inside Iran, the sudden dying of the Supreme Chief, and many others.
The Cipher Transient: What about Iran’s response?
Roule: Iran must conduct a number of actions concurrently to scale back the strain on the regime and enhance its likelihood of long-term survival. These steps embrace ending the protests, bettering its navy capabilities, and creating a diplomatic technique to delay a U.S. navy strike. However within the close to time period, Tehran stays unlikely to present Washington what it needs.
Domestically, Tehran should guarantee and reveal management and unity amongst safety forces. The nation’s management will proceed to comprise a spectrum of trusted actors. Safety forces will aggressively search to find and detain anybody believed to have been a part of the latest unrest and anybody who they imagine has engaged in unauthorized contact with Western opposition or media, and expedite trials to point out that the regime’s management stays sturdy. The regime will search alternatives to mission an environment of normalcy and, as now we have already seen, arrange pro-regime rallies and occasions to point out that it has its personal base of assist.
Externally, the regime will search to mission defiance and confidence. Its major diplomatic aim might be to purchase time and stop coalitions from forming, so it can search negotiations, not directly at any time when potential, and can all the time give attention to essentially the most sophisticated problem: the nuclear program. Its public feedback on the talks might be optimistic and obscure. This has been its ordinary apply as a result of doing so has a optimistic influence on the worth of the rial to the greenback and helps the regime’s propaganda on diplomacy.
We should always count on Tehran to take care of oil manufacturing and perhaps even attempt to improve floating storage on shadow-fleet belongings in Asia to permit it to satisfy contracts throughout any short-term battle with the U.S. If it feels it wants to shut the Strait of Hormuz, it has a number of methods of doing so, however we shouldn’t be shocked if the U.S. navy has a number of choices for coping with that.
On the similar time, it can put together missile and cyber operations each to sign deterrence and to outlive any U.S. and probably mixed U.S.-Israel assault. Within the absence of a reputable air protection, its deterrence rests on a public diplomacy narrative that it stands able to launch broad assaults towards each U.S. base within the area, Israel, and to shut the Strait of Hormuz and maybe assault oil export amenities, damaging the worldwide oil market, if the U.S. assaults. Iran hopes these statements will spark debate within the U.S. and diplomatic strain from the worldwide neighborhood towards Washington over an assault.
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