COLUMN/THE BLUF: A momentous occasion is occurring that’s receiving little fanfare within the U.S. however might have main long-term implications for regional stability, save lives, and alter geopolitics and commerce within the south Caucasus space.
The peace deal signed on the White Home between Armenia and Azerbaijan final August might reverse a trajectory of bloodshed and hatred between these two international locations and exchange these cornerstones of their relationship with peace, prosperity and stability.
It might begin a brand new commerce path to Europe that bypasses Russia. This would depart Moscow, which has manipulated politics in that a part of the world for hundreds of years, out within the chilly. There may be nonetheless a protracted approach to go however the dynamics are constructive, and the time is true to make this occur.
Iran is aware of that and final evening, Azeri authorities say that Tehran attacked the Caucasus with drones – an allegation that Tehran denies. In accordance with the Azeris, the assault Included the Azerbaijani area of Nakhchivan, an space that’s reduce off from Azerbaijan, bordered by Armenia and Iran – and a area that may be a key a part of the Trump peace proposal for Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Not a Subscriber+Member however want entry to the nationwide safety content material that the consultants learn? Let’s get that finished.
The trendy wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan focus on Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave in Azerbaijan that has been inhabited largely by ethnic Armenians for hundreds of years. The wars have claimed the lives of over 30,000 folks, most of whom had been civilians. An estimated 400,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan and 600,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia and Karabakh had been displaced because of these trendy wars which began in 1988 because the Soviet Union was breaking up and centuries outdated hatreds got here out, infected by Russia.
I used to be an analyst at CIA in 1988 and spent my days writing about and briefing coverage makers in regards to the Armenian and Azerbaijan battle over Nagorno Karabakh. I spent a variety of time making an attempt to elucidate why the 2 sides had been preventing over this mountainous space that has no oil or minerals of a lot value. It was onerous to elucidate to sensible U.S. coverage makers how the Russians arrange this battle as a approach to hold management over their Muslim and Christian neighbors.
The present peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is one thing I by no means anticipated. If it lasts, it’s going to permit these two international locations to give attention to their financial development and stability as a substitute of losing blood and treasure on centuries outdated hatreds instigated by their neighbor.
The battle over Nagorno Karabakh goes again 1000s of years. The land was inhabited by Armenians most likely for the reason that 1st millennium BC as a part of the Kingdom of Larger Armenia.
In 1724, Peter the Nice inspired the Armenians who had been aligned with Russia, to take over territory all the way in which to the Caspian Sea which had been a part of the Safavid State, proof of Russian encouragement of dangerous relations between these neighbors even then.
The Russian generals had been inspired to displace the Azerbaijani inhabitants in any approach they may. Underneath the phrases of the Turkmenchay Treaty, 40,000 Armenians had been resettled in Azerbaijan. By 1829 within the Peace Settlement of Edirne, 90,000 Armenians who had been dwelling within the Ottoman Empire had been additionally resettled in Azerbaijan by Russia, largely in Nakhchivan, Yerevan, and Karabakh. This was Russia’s approach of changing and subduing the Muslim inhabitants within the space.
Even then, Russia performed with ambiguity, largely siding with Armenia however holding out hope to Azerbaijan that its inhabitants would retake territory loss to ethnic Armenians. Armenia maintained Karabakh which was wealthy in Armenian cultural historical past, church buildings, and monuments till 1921 when the Soviet Union assigned the area to Soviet Azerbaijan as an autonomous oblast. The Soviets saved the 2 republics from widespread bloodshed over the territory, officiating territorial disputes and occasional dustups.
The primary trendy Karabakh warfare began in 1988. The warfare didn’t occur in a single day. We noticed it occurring piece by piece. An assault at this intersection, transportation routes between Baku and Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, blown up after which bus depots the place gasoline was saved, blown up. None of it made headlines however because the analyst on this subject, it saved me busy.
By 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan had been in open battle. Due to the Soviet oversight of the predominantly Armenian area, the oblast had a level of self-governance. With the Soviet Empire fractured, the Armenian inhabitants feared marginalization beneath Azeri rule and sought unification with the Republic of Armenia.
When Azerbaijan declared its independence from the Soviet Union and determined to remove a few of the enclave’s autonomy, the principally ethnic Armenian inhabitants voted to secede from Azerbaijan.
Full-scale preventing over the succession erupted within the late winter of 1992. Worldwide mediation by a number of teams didn’t convey decision and within the spring of 1993, Armenian forces captured Azerbaijani territory situated exterior the enclave. By 1994, the Armenians had been in full management of many of the enclave and held roughly 9% of Azerbaijan’s territory exterior the enclave.
Some 600,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis had been displaced. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in Could 1994. Karabakh can be administered by Azerbaijan however managed by Armenian forces and known as itself the Republic of Artsakh. The Russians had been the peacekeepers.
This uneasy peace lasted about 6 years.
In 2020, the following “Karabakh Warfare” warfare started. This was a 44-day battle which dramatically altered the regional stability of energy. Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, launched a profitable offensive, reclaiming vital territory. Russia didn’t help Armenia militarily, however the battle concluded with one other Russian-brokered ceasefire and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to watch the demarcation line.
By 2023, Azerbaijan intensified its management over Karabakh and launched one other offensive. This led to the Russian peacekeepers leaving the area, the closing of the Russian-Turkish monitoring station in Agdam, the migration of some 100,000 ethnic Armenians, and the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh.
The scenario remained tense with intermittent armed assaults, roadside ambushes, border skirmishes, and extra deaths. Underneath that cover, the second Trump administration started its personal negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
By March 13, 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan introduced that each events had agreed on all phrases of a peace settlement framework which included Armenia giving up claims on Nagorno Karabakh. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterised the announcement as “historic,” whereas European Union Excessive Consultant Kaja Kallas described it as “a decisive step.” I agree on each counts.
On August 8, 2025, a summit came about in Washington, D.C., the place President Trump hosted Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the White Home and introduced a peace settlement signed by the leaders however nonetheless to be ratified by the parliaments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are 17 articles within the settlement. One of many high-profile elements of the settlement is the Trump Route for Worldwide Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This new route is predicted to attach mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan, by Armenian territory. This adjustments commerce routes for the Caucasus and Central Asia. The completion of the route would permit the passage of individuals and items throughout Azerbaijan and the broader Central Asia to Europe with no need to journey by Russia or Iran.
Iran and Russia have condemned the function of the USA within the proposed TRIPP mission as an encroachment. One other necessary issue for regional politics is that Russia was not concerned with this peace treaty, and Russian peacekeepers are now not on the Armenian or Azerbaijani territories.
Want a day by day dose of actuality on nationwide and world safety points? Subscribe to The Cipher Temporary’s Nightcap publication, delivering knowledgeable insights on immediately’s occasions – proper to your inbox. Join free immediately.
Following up on the historic White Home summit, Vice President J.D.Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in February. Whereas there he stated, “Peace is just not made by cautious folks. Peace is just not made by people who find themselves too centered on the previous. Peace is made by people who find themselves centered on the longer term.”
Vance’s journey to Armenia and Azerbaijan and the offers he introduced with him present that the administration is taking this peace significantly. In Baku, Vance signed a strategic partnership constitution overlaying economic system and commerce, power, connectivity, synthetic intelligence, digital growth, safety, and protection.
In Armenia, the U.S. pledged help on nuclear power, laptop chips and drones. The U.S. can be holding Azerbaijan to account, emphasizing help for democratic establishments and the rule of legislation of their safety settlement with Baku.
What’s Subsequent
I’ve studied this a part of the world for over thirty years. My kids, who had been born whereas I used to be writing intelligence items on the continued warfare in Nagorno Karabakh now have kids.
My hope and need is that my grandchildren will solely learn in regards to the bloody historical past of the area and that they are going to be capable of expertise a brand new chapter in cooperation that brings prosperity as a serious commerce route from Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe. I are usually an optimist, however the time is true for one of these settlement if all events keep centered on the top recreation. We can not let these historic occasions get drawn into the combat with Iran.
The U.S. has an settlement for growth rights for the hall which might permit Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states to bypass Russia and Iran for commerce routes. The U.S. should be steward of these rights and make sure that all neighboring international locations are performing in good religion.
Proper now, Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and its personal crumbling economic system. The world should regulate any makes an attempt by Russia to as soon as once more encourage enmity between these two states and cease any such efforts instantly. Iran too, on the border of those two international locations, is clearly making an attempt to attract in anybody it may to divert from the U.S. – Israeli strikes and should not be allowed to divert progress within the Caucasus. Turkey is a winner on this alternate, as the foremost western hub for commerce and Ankara must play a constructive function, together with with Armenia.
The settlement represents a big shift in Armenian overseas coverage, transferring away from conventional reliance on Russia towards nearer ties with Western establishments, the USA, and even Turkey. Armenians must be rewarded for his or her braveness. Azerbaijan, already profitable after the assaults in opposition to Karabakh in 2024, stays in a powerful place however should be inspired to give attention to democracy.
A southern commerce route that brings oil, gasoline, and agricultural items to Europe by the Caucasus and Turkey is a win for this a part of the world and can change the dynamics between the Caucasus and Central Asia and Russia. This can be a as soon as in a era alternative that the U.S. and Europe ought to proceed to champion.
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Temporary’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There isn’t any higher place to get clear views from deeply skilled nationwide safety consultants.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Temporary as a result of Nationwide Safety is Everybody’s Enterprise.