Снявший голову, по волосам не плачут
(When your head is reduce off, you don’t cry about your hair)
– Outdated Russian Proverb
OPINION – Russia is readying for Victory Day celebrations at a time when Moscow is something however victorious as its unprovoked struggle on Ukraine enters its fifth yr of destruction and devastation. And for the primary time, the impression of that struggle might be on full show in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping to remind Russians of the achievements of the Soviet Union of their defeat of Nazi Germany. He additionally desires them to imagine that it’s he, Putin, who has returned Russia as a army energy to its correct place within the pantheon of world states. However this yr’s Victory Day celebration and its centerpiece parade by way of Crimson Sq. might be one thing fairly completely different starting from who might be there, to what might be on show.
Partially out of concern over potential Ukrainian drone strikes, there might be only a few overseas leaders or dignitaries in attendance. There’ll even be decreased illustration of the management of the Russian Federation current on Lenin’s tomb – the standard place of honor. Within the parade itself, there might be no Russian army {hardware} (armored automobiles and missiles) pushed by way of the sq..
The diminishment of the parade is a giant deal, having witnessed 5 of them myself, I’ve seen what the victory celebration means to many Russians. The discount within the dimension of the parade is clearly out of concern for a potential Ukrainian assault, however a extra trustworthy celebration this yr can be for the present management of Russia to acknowledge the duty of the Soviet Union for the Second World Struggle beginning within the first place – with the division of Japanese Europe between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union as outlined within the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August 1939, which grew to become generally known as the German-Soviet non-aggression pact. It was signed instantly previous Hitler’s invasion of Poland on September 1 of that very same yr.
In the present day, President Putin is reportedly displaying extreme concern about his personal safety each from the specter of Ukrainian drone assaults (anti-drone patrol boats are reportedly seen on the Moscow River close to the Kremlin) and the specter of potential assault by Ukrainian or Russian assassins in Moscow.
Putin is reportedly doing most of his work from a bunker advanced in Russia’s Krasnodar area and avoiding his traditional residences within the Moscow area and Valdai. He’s additionally instituting extraordinary safety protocols for guests paying homage to these he instituted throughout the COVID period. He has dramatically decreased public appearances prior to now few months. And maybe additionally consultant of Putin’s rising paranoia, in March, Russian safety forces arrested Russian Tsalikov, former Minister of Protection Shoigu’s very long time Deputy on corruption costs. However sources in Russia counsel the true cause for the arrest was concern that he was concerned in plotting a coup. This, as there’s rising proof of criticism of Putin’s regime on social media and in army blogger communities, maybe contributing to the regime’s efforts to restrict communications on Telegram and the shutting down of the web in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and different cities.
Maybe enjoying most important in Putin’s issues over his personal safety and regime stability is the efficacy with which Ukraine is attacking power infrastructure within the Russian Federation and the impact these assaults are having on the Russian economic system.
In 2025 alone, Ukraine carried out greater than 140 strikes on refineries, ports and logistics hubs in Russia with some targets positioned deep inside Russian territory. This yr, Ukraine has carried out over 40 deep strikes, and the tempo of these strikes is rising, as evidenced by the success of Ukrainian assaults on Russian bases, naval targets within the Black Sea and assaults in opposition to ships which can be a part of Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” working within the Mediterranean and elsewhere. These assaults are significant however not as economically impactful as those focusing on Russia’s power infrastructure.
All through the second half of April, Ukraine made the Black Sea resort of Tuapse its major goal. Tuapse is a sprawling oil metropolis – dwelling to a Rosneft oil refinery, one among Russia’s oldest, which operates alongside an export terminal that ships petroleum merchandise abroad. From April 16 to Could 1, Ukraine hit the city 4 instances, damaging each the terminal and the refinery. The drone strikes led to a real ecological disaster.
Video photos of the fires on the refinery had been surprising. Plumes of smoke had been reportedly seen from orbit and poisonous black rain fell throughout the town with burning petroleum pouring down a minimum of one of many metropolis’s streets. Air high quality checks reportedly confirmed excessive ranges of carcinogenic benzene and xylene within the air in addition to poisonous soot. And regardless of Putin’s greatest efforts to regulate state information media and shut down the web, he nonetheless can’t conceal the impact of assaults similar to these on Tuapse in addition to the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk – from the Russian folks.
Ukrainian assaults are economically consequential. In keeping with numerous sources, there have been over $13 billion in losses to Russia’s oil sector and as much as 40% of Russia’s refining capability has been disrupted or is now working beneath decreased circumstances. The assaults on Russian ports have resulted in durations of exports dropping by 50% throughout peak durations. The Ukrainian assaults have decreased Russia’s income acquire from the ill-timed, if momentary, U.S. lifting of sanctions on Russian power. For a rustic that depends considerably on revenues from hydrocarbon gross sales, it is a severe blow.
There are home penalties as properly, Russia has been compelled to reintroduce a ban on gasoline exports (April–July 2026), whereas home gas costs have already elevated by 6–8%. Most of Russia’s refining capability was modernized by western power firms within the post-Soviet interval. These applied sciences are now not accessible to Russia resulting from sanctions. Putin’s power challenges are solely going to worsen and financing the invasion of Ukraine is barely going to get tougher.
Compounding the issue set for the Russian chief in Krasnodar, former U.S. envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg has lately remarked that Russia is shedding the struggle resulting from “astronomical” casualties, estimating 1.2-1.4 million Russian troops killed or wounded. These are World Struggle Two stage losses and examine unfavorably to the 18,000 misplaced by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Russia is unable to switch misplaced troops on the tempo they’re being killed or wounded with no basic mobilization. The troops that are being despatched to Ukraine as replacements are much more poorly skilled, ready, and outfitted than their predecessors – which can partly clarify why Russian casualties are mounting and Russia continues to be unable to amass significant tracts of Ukrainian territory.
One different danger to contemplate if Putin is feeling remoted and paranoid is the safety providers and management of the Baltic States which can be more and more expressing issues of a Russian provocation in opposition to their nations beneath the pretext – particularly within the case of Estonia – defending in opposition to repression of the ethnic Russian inhabitants.
One will recall that this was a part of the rationale for Russia’s occupation of Crimea and assist for the insurrections in Donetsk and Luhansk in addition to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Related issues have appeared in risk assessments by the safety providers of latest NATO members Sweden and Finland. The worry in these nations is that Putin will assault, forcing NATO nations to behave in accordance with Article V of the NATO Constitution. And Putin is betting that the Trump Administration will refuse to conform, thus ending NATO as it’s presently structured. Congress could not let Trump renege on America’s dedication in such a state of affairs.
Judging from among the feedback coming from Ukrainian and different officers on the recently-concluded Kyiv Safety Discussion board, there’s a perceptible sense of optimism in Kyiv and elsewhere that Ukraine could win this struggle in any case – regardless of the discount or cessation of assist beneath the Trump Administration. President Trump is known for his disdain of being related to “losers.” It will make sense then for him to rethink his affiliation with Putin and his stance on supporting Ukraine.
Subsequent yr presently, there could also be a Victory Day parade on the Maidan Sq. in Kyiv and neither Trump nor Vice President JD Vance might be invited. Discuss ending up on the improper aspect of historical past.
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