“Focusing on quick boat operators won’t cease main drug trafficking kingpins from sending multi-ton portions of medicine to our nation and around the globe,” Michael Chavarria, a former DEA supervisor who spent 26 years investigating drug cartels in Mexico, the Caribbean and the Southwest border, advised The Cipher Transient. “The drug commerce is essentially the most worthwhile enterprise on this planet, the ultimate. The minions presently focused on the excessive seas will proceed risking their lives as a result of kingpins pay them greater than they may ever earn pursuing authorized choices. Now, on the excessive seas, they’re being extrajudicially murdered, in a marketing campaign that can don’t have any affect on the worldwide drug commerce.”
Like different veterans of the DEA, Chavarria suspects that if the boats blown up to date contained contraband, it was probably marijuana or cocaine, a stimulant manufactured in Colombia from coca vegetation grown in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. Lots of the small boats plying the Caribbean are believed to be supplying the European market, the place cocaine brings double or triple U.S. costs. Whereas hardly benign, cocaine shouldn’t be thought of a significant overdose hazard, and it has fallen out of style amongst many American drug customers, who’ve more and more turned to far riskier substances — significantly fentanyl, an artificial opioid painkiller a lot stronger than heroin, and the artificial stimulant methamphetamine. Each are manufactured largely in Mexico, in cartel “superlabs,” with precursor chemical compounds imported from China and India.
“I doubt these selections [to attack small boats] contain enter from DEA management, who I consider serve the American public as greatest as sources permit,” Chavarria mentioned. “As a substitute, let’s give attention to the Chinese language fentanyl sources liable for threatening our residents’ lives. The brand new lethal triangle is China-Mexico-United States.”
Regardless of objections from Congress, authorized students and overseas governments, President Trump has introduced he might quickly authorize strikes inside Venezuela. Many consultants consider his agenda in that nation is about forcing President Nicolas Maduro out of workplace, fairly than stopping medication, as a result of Venezuela shouldn’t be recognized for producing huge portions of unlawful medication. The U.S. authorities’s most authoritative annual intelligence assessments – the Drug Enforcement Administration’s Nationwide Drug Risk Evaluation and the State Division’s Worldwide Narcotics Management Technique Report – characterize Venezuela as a transshipment hub. Maduro himself and a quantity present and former Venezuelan officers have been indicted in 2020 for conspiring with Colombia’s leftist FARC insurgents to move cocaine produced within the guerillas’ jungle labs in Colombia.
The issue is in Mexico
The world’s richest, strongest drug lords are Mexican residents, with well-armed personal armies, dynasties and bases of operations nestled deep within the Mexican countryside. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum has completely dominated out the concept of American boots on Mexican soil. Will the U.S. defy her needs by ordering American armed drones or particular operations groups into Mexico to conduct unilateral commando raids? To date, Trump and his senior advisors haven’t signaled that such incursions are imminent – however they’ve by no means mentioned by no means. In Ecuador two months in the past, Rubio mentioned the administration would proceed to focus on and kill suspected traffickers with out their homelands’ consent, if these nations didn’t take part in Trump’s new battle on medication by mounting their very own assaults on cartels. “For cooperative governments, there’s no want as a result of these governments are going to assist us,” he mentioned. “They’re going to assist us discover these individuals and blow them up, if that’s what it takes.”
Mexican safety forces have repeatedly tried and did not arrest El Mencho, actual identify Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, Mexico’s kingpin of kingpins. Oseguera is the 59-year-old founder and chief of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), Mexico’s, and the world’s most profitable and feared organized crime enterprise. The CJNG, which emerged from the western state of Michoacán, famed for its avocados, is now a multinational billion-dollar enterprise with a presence in practically each state in the usand a minimum of 40 nations, in response to DEA’s Nationwide Drug Risk Evaluation. The U.S. has put a $15 million bounty on Oseguera’s head.
“The CJNG might be the wealthiest prison group on this planet, possibly much more than the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] in Iran,” Paul Craine, previously DEA’s regional director for Mexico, Central America, and Canada, advised The Cipher Transient. “It’s the most important terrorist group within the Western hemisphere. The CJNG is now proper on the border, which nobody ever anticipated. Plus, they’ve the U.S. infiltrated with their parts for smuggling weapons, medication and different companies.”
Reward poster for info resulting in the arrest and/or conviction of “El Mencho”. (State Division)
In second place is the older, fragmented however nonetheless highly effective Sinaloa cartel. Sinaloa cartel leaders Ivan Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesus Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, often called the Chapitos, are sons of the notorious cartel founder Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, now serving time in a U.S. jail. They’re credited with creating the fentanyl craze by selling it of their distribution methods, alongside cocaine, meth and marijuana. The U.S. is providing rewards of $10 million apiece for them.
In an interview with The Cipher Transient, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Tex., who not too long ago led the Congressional activity drive on cartels to Mexico to seek advice from Sheinbaum’s senior safety officers, mentioned he wouldn’t advise Trump to strive a unilateral incursion on Mexican soil with out that nation’s full settlement and energetic participation. Such an act would explicitly violate the 2 nations’ joint settlement signed final month pledging “respect of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Each nations promised to battle drug trafficking and different crimes “every in our personal territory,” Mexican overseas secretary overseas secretary Juan Ramon de la Fuente emphasised.
To dismantle the cartels and destroy their sanctuaries in Mexico, Crenshaw, a former lieutenant commander within the Navy SEALs, and different members of Congress are pushing for an enormous joint U.S.-Mexico initiative modeled on the U.S.-Colombian military-intelligence relationship within the Nineteen Nineties and early 2000s. In these operations, Colombian commandos have been the purpose of the spear, with advisors and trainers from U.S. particular operations, the Central Intelligence Company, Nationwide Safety Company and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration working behind the scenes, offering coaching, communications intercepts, human intelligence, monitoring know-how, monetary analyses and different technical help. In consequence, in 1993, the joint effort tracked alerts from a radio telephone wielded by legendary Medellin cartel founder Pablo Escobar to the roof of a dingy constructing in downtown Medellin. A Colombian army marksman shot him useless. The remainder of the Medellin cartel crumbled. By 1995, the Cali cartel had fallen. FARC guerillas quickly stepped into the breach by establishing jungle labs and taking up the cocaine manufacturing enterprise. The CIA covertly equipped U.S.-made precision-guided munitions that the Colombians utilized in a collection of air strikes that decimated the FARC management. In 2016, surviving FARC guerillas made a peace accord with Bogotá and agreed to demobilize.
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What the battle would appear to be
Any commando workforce that tries to tackle Mexico’s drug bosses and their massive, well-armed paramilitary forces can anticipate ferocious resistance financed by very deep pockets. CJNG territory covers hundreds of sq. miles within the western Mexican state of Michoacán, the place Oseguera was born, and in neighboring Jalisco state. His area is rugged countryside, dotted with ranches and laced with hidden trails, caves and mines. Oseguera has even constructed his personal hospital, in response to DEA intelligence, so he can endure remedy for persistent kidney illness.
The Chapitos are equally well-protected in Sinaloa state. Consultants warn {that a} joint Mexican-U.S. particular operations assault would increase the specter of potential “blue-on-blue”or “green-on-green” firefights a with corrupt parts of Mexico’s safety forces defending the narco leaders. “They journey in hordes of safety,” says a senior DEA agent who has investigated them for a few years. “And never simply hordes of safety, however you are speaking a couple of paid-off army that is defending them, paid-off police defending them. The corruption is simply so rampant, and for this reason plenty of these individuals cannot get caught.”
“Whether or not you name it counterterrorism or counterinsurgency, that’s what we’re coping with in Mexico,” Crenshaw advised the Cipher Transient. “They use terroristic techniques. They terrorize their very own individuals. They’re an insurgency, within the sense that they are built-in into each stage of society, from authorities to their very own army, to safety, to popular culture… The Mexican army has some very, very elite models that I feel can be revered wherever on this planet. However there’s not a lot of them. They want extra, and extra coaching, further pipelines into these elite models. Fundamental plane, ISR [intelligence surveillance reconnaissance], shut air help, issues which might be largely missing. Once they do go into these very harmful areas and attempt to go after a few of these harmful kingpins, they’re doing so with out the form of help that U.S. particular operations can be used to.”
Violence on the Mexico-United States border continues to rise. Simply 10 days into the month, practically 21 homicides are recorded. On Monday, March 10, seven individuals are shot and killed in separate incidents. (Photograph by David Peinado/NurPhoto by way of Getty Pictures)
The CJNG’s defenses are thought of significantly militarized and formidable. In response to present and former U.S. officers who’ve investigated the cartel, Mencho roams about his area by way of four-wheel-drive convoys or small plane, at all times surrounded by massive numbers of heavily-armed paramilitary fighters who put on insignia figuring out them as FEM, Fuerzas Especiales Mencho or Grupo X, which focuses on preventing rival cartels. Like Osama Bin Laden, he avoids utilizing telephones and as an alternative makes use of messengers.
For a commando workforce, armed drone or precision-guided munition to seek out Mencho and his social gathering, exact GPS coordinates can be wanted, and so they’ll be laborious to return by.
“He strikes fairly typically,” a U.S. knowledgeable who has not too long ago assessed the kingpin’s vulnerabilities advised The Cipher Transient. “So the intelligence on his location must be extraordinarily good. Which it’s not.”
Whether or not surveillance drones may receive dependable coordinates on Mencho’s place in actual time is questionable. “The place Mencho is hiding they will hear drones coming,” the U.S. knowledgeable mentioned. “It’s so quiet on the market there’s no noise air pollution. They’ve been efficiently avoiding SEMAR’s drones for years.” SEMAR is U.S. army shorthand for a Mexican navy/marines particular operations unit that has skilled with the U.S. Navy SEALs and labored intently with the U.S.
The cartel has its personal drone unit, referred to as the Operadores Droneros, full with badges. Cartel operatives additionally arrange safety cameras, like looking cameras, to detect the presence of outsiders.
“They’ve plenty of early warning functionality,” mentioned Chavarria, who used to run the DEA’s workplace in Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, then ran investigations of the Gulf cartel out of Houston. “I do not suppose that now we have the kind of exact intelligence that will permit us to impact an operation. And even when it is obtainable, it is time-sensitive, it is perishable. In the event you’re not there on prime of your goal, you are going to miss. After which there’s going to be gunfights and plenty of harmless individuals are going to get killed. Mencho hangs out in cities, he bounces round as a result of he is untouchable. He is bought police escorts, he is bought state cops and municipal cops defending him. His males have ringed perimeters of safety, the place they’re speaking with each other on numerous frequencies which might be digitally encrypted. So it’s extremely troublesome for the U.S. to crack these encryptions, and clearly for the Mexican safety forces as nicely.”
In response to Chavarria and different present and former officers, the CJNG has in depth counter-surveillance capabilities. Cartel safety officers, often called sicarios, actually, assassins, situation cellphones with closely encrypted voice-over-internet and radio-over-internet apps to tons of of human lookouts, referred to as halcones, which means hawks, spies, who’re below orders to report any strangers exhibiting up in cartel territory.
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Mexican safety forces have been pushed again each time they’ve tried to get near Mencho. Notoriously, on Might 1, 2015, a Mexican army helicopter that flew over his convoy in Jalisco state was shot down by the cartel paramilitary drive with an Iranian-made rocket-propelled grenade and .50 caliber belt-fed machine gun. 9 Mexican troopers and federal police died, and others have been severely wounded. Rubén Oseguera González, AKA Menchito, Mencho’s California-born son and second-in-command, then 25, was accused of ordering the assault on the helicopter. The Mexican army and police mounted an enormous operation to trace him to a rich suburb of Guadalajara. Menchito was extradited to Los Angeles, prosecuted for violating U.S. drug legal guidelines, convicted final September and on March 7, sentenced to life plus 30 years in a U.S. jail.
The U.S. victory was short-lived. Mencho’s stepson Juan Carlos Valencia González, a California-born U.S. citizen who’s the son of Oseguera’s spouse, Rosalinda González Valencia and has emerged as Mencho’s heir-apparent. A pacesetter within the cartel’s elite commando drive, he’s often called R-3. The U.S. is providing a $5 million reward for him. ( His mom Rosalinda, AKA La Jefa, comes from a strong cartel dynasty, the Valencias. Her uncle is Armando Valencia, AKA El Maradona, founding father of the Milenio Cartel, the predecessor of the CJNG. A serious participant in her personal proper, Rosalinda frolicked in a Mexican jail for cash laundering however was launched final February, in response to information stories in Mexico.)
Sheinbaum has satisfied many in Washington that she is honest in her dedication to interrupt the ability of the cartels, particularly the CJNG, which has menaced her administration unceasingly.
In 2020, Sheinbaum’s trusted advisor Omar García Harfuch, then Mexico Metropolis’s chief of police, narrowly survived a CJNG assasination try. Sheinbaum was Mexico Metropolis’s mayor on the time. When Sheinbaum grew to become president in October 2024, she named Harfuch nationwide safety minister and accelerated army raids on CJNG labs and different websites.
However to date, the cartel has proved stronger. Final March, Mexican troopers and nationwide guardsmen driving in a convoy close to CJNG territory on the border between Jalisco and Michoacán states have been ambushed, and 6 safety drive officers and three CJNG hitmen have been killed. Three days later, safety forces within the space have been once more ambushed, two of their quantity killed and the remaining pressured to retreat.
On Might 1, precisely 10 years to the day after the helicopter downing, Oseguera staged a flamboyant retribution for the incarceration of his son Menchito. Iván Morales Corrales, a Mexican policeman who survived the crash, badly burned, was embellished as a nationwide hero and testified towards Menchito within the U.S. trial in Los Angeles, was gunned down along with his spouse whereas driving on a quiet road in a city removed from the CJNG’s turf. This was an unmistakable assertion that the cartel may attain anybody, wherever, anytime.
David Cristobal Barraza Sainz, often called Commander “Nitro” throughout the Sinaloa State Police, was shot and killed after an assault that came about on Pedro Infante Boulevard at round 1:00 p.m in Sinaloa, Mexico on July 15, 2025. (Photograph by Stringer/Anadolu by way of Getty Pictures)
Derek Maltz, who served as DEA administrator till June and earlier than that ran the company’s elite Particular Operations Division for a decade, believes that if the Mexican military fails to mount extra operations towards the CJNG and different cartel strongholds, the Trump workforce will critically contemplate unilateral operations, regardless of Sheinbaum’s vocal objections. “If the U.S. authorities does not understand that Mexico has the need or capabilities to actually take them off the taking part in area, I would not be stunned that the administration is focused strikes on the [cartel] management,” Maltz advised The Cipher Transient. “ I might personally encourage it. The president has made it clear that he will place American households first, making an attempt to maintain everybody secure and safe. So if it means taking out some kingpins within the narco-terrorist world, I might absolutely help that.”
As a sensible matter, a raid or two wouldn’t resolve the issue. Mexico’s cartels, like main firms, may survive the loss of some key executives. “Killing Mencho can be vital, nevertheless it’s not going to take out the group,” Craine mentioned. “You are going to should have sustained operations towards the entire community.”
A worldwide syndicate of evil
The CJNG has constructed out an advanced and sturdy govt construction in recent times because it has gone world and diversified.
“Mencho is increasing around the globe,” Maltz advised The Cipher Transient. He and his allies “have acknowledged the menace to their enterprise enterprise with the elevated consideration by the Trump administration. So that they’re adjusting methods, realigning, figuring out new partnerships, being strategic in a few of their world routes and capitalizing available on the market in numerous areas of the world.” Maltz and different DEA veterans say Mencho has cemented worldwide alliances with organized crime syndicates, from bike gangs in the usto the Japanese Yakuza. When the earnings to be produced from human trafficking dwindled because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on the border, the CJNG developed different strong money streams, together with stealing gas from the Mexican oil firm PEMEX and different vitality retailers, extorting avocado farmers, and even smuggling mercury, an expensive, toxic by-product of gold-mining, in response to the DEA and information stories.
“The CJNG is the primary worldwide prison conglomerate,” Craine mentioned. “It’s the primary ICC to function worldwide and to have prison management of authorized commodities and companies as nicely, comparable to oil, gasoline, minerals, chemical compounds, timber, authorities funding, infrastructure and sources, armed forces, weapons, politics, police companies, judicial methods, worldwide monetary companies, and so forth.”
What’s most alarming is the numerous CJNG and Sinaloa cartel presence within the U.S.
“What we face as we speak in Southern California is a full-scale infiltration by overseas prison empires, the Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Technology cartel – paramilitary organizations with world provide chains, company stage logistics, and battlefield techniques,” Matthew Allen, DEA’s chief of operations, advised the Senate Judiciary committee final June.
Allen testified that a number of weeks earlier, a DEA workforce had raided an previous warehouse in downtown Los Angeles, a number of blocks from the company’s large Southern California workplace. Hidden inside, the brokers found, was an opulent CJNG secure home with locations for cartel operatives to lounge, a pool desk, polished flooring and, presiding over all of it, a floor-to-ceiling mural of El Mencho, depicted in a bulletproof vest emblazoned with the CJNG insignia and Mencho’s private image, a bloody cockfight.
It was, Allen mentioned, “a shrine, not hidden within the jungle or some distant compound however proper within the coronary heart of the guts of America’s second-largest metropolis. The message was clear: ‘We’re right here. We’re amongst you’.”
Picture of Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación secure home in Los Angeles.(DEA Official)
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